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CMU-ISR-08-116
Institute for Software Research
School of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University
CMU-ISR-08-116
Social Network Change Detection
Ian A. McCulloh, Kathleen M. Carley
March 2008
Center for the Computational Analysis of
Social and Organizational Systems (CASOS) Technical Report
CMU-ISR-08-116.pdf
Keywords: Social networks, change detection, statistical process
control, CUSUM, Al-Qaeda, IkeNet, terrorism
Changes in observed social networks may signal an underlying change
within an organization, and may even predict significant events or behaviors.
The breakdown of a team's effectiveness, the emergence of informal leaders,
or the preparation of an attack by a clandestine network may all be associated
with changes in the patterns of interactions between group members. The
ability to systematically, statistically, effectively and efficiently detect
these changes has the potential to enable the anticipation of change, provide
early warning of change, and enable faster response to change. By
applying statistical process control techniques to social networks we can
detect changes in these networks. Herein we describe this methodology and
then illustrate it using three data sets. The first deals with the email
communications among graduate students. The second is the perceived
connections among members of al Qaeda based on open source data. The
results indicate that this approach is able to detect change even with
the high levels of uncertainty inherent in these data.
26 pages
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