Human-Computer Interaction Institute
School of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University
The "55M End-User Programmers" Estimate Revisited
Christopher Scaffidi, Mary Shaw, Brad Myers
Also appears as Institute for Software Research International
We estimate that in 2012, there will be 90 million end-users in American workplaces. Of these, we anticipate that over 55 million will use spreadsheets or databases (and therefore will be potential end-user programmers), while over 13 million will describe themselves as programmers. Thus, the potential pool of end-user programmers will probably substantially exceed the population who view themselves as programmers. Each of these estimates, in turn, substantially exceeds the latest BLS projections of fewer than 3 million professional programmers in 2012. Since not all end-users perform the same programming tasks, we surmise that the vast, heterogeneous pool of endusers likely will benefit from a diversity of tools to support their programming activities. Developing such tools efficiently requires a better characterization of what features are valued by each end-user sub-population. To that end, this paper concludes by outlining plans for future research, including creating an abstraction-focused categorization of end-users.