|   | CMU-CS-97-169 Computer Science Department
 School of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University
 
    
     
 CMU-CS-97-169
 
Using Option Pricing to Value Commitment Flexibility in
Multi-agent Systems 
Katia Sycara 
September 1997  
CMU-CS-97-169.ps Keywords: Software agents, multi-agent systems, automated 
negotiation, contingent contracts, decommitment, financial options
 With the explosive growth of internet activity, there will be an
increasing reliance on intelligent software agents for electronic
commerce and information retrieval.  Such multi-agents systems will be
comprised of self-motivated agents that interact with each other
though negotiation and task delegation. Multi-agent technology models
and facilitates these interactions through  automated contracting.  We
develop a domain independent computational model to study in a uniform
manner many complex issues that arise in multi-agent contracting, such
as  modeling commitment flexibility  in a contract, valuing a contract
under assumptions of uncertainty,  risk reduction, making decisions in
situations  of asymmetric information, or situations of sequential
subcontracting where each agent must decide to subcontract part of its
current  contract to others.  Our model is based on financial option
pricing theory. We believe that modeling contracts as options provides
a natural  unified  framework  for taking into account contracting
flexibility  and  complex forms of environmental uncertainty.  In
addition, option pricing provides  a computationally tractable
formalism for calculating optimal values  of various contracting
decision parameters, that to date  have not been rigorously
modeled. Such parameters  include  the value of a  flexible/contingent
contract, when to give out a contract to a contractee, when to break a
contract, and  which  contract to accept out of a set  of offered
contracts.  Under our model these aspects of contracting can be
explored analytically  and  experimentally.  Moreover, there are  some
aspects  of  contracting that have no analogues in financial
options.  These include contract quality guarantees and multiple
sequential sub-contracting.   We extend option pricing theory  in
interesting ways to model such contracts.
 
22 pages 
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