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CMU-CS-97-169
Computer Science Department
School of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University
CMU-CS-97-169
Using Option Pricing to Value Commitment Flexibility in
Multi-agent Systems
Katia Sycara
September 1997
CMU-CS-97-169.ps
Keywords: Software agents, multi-agent systems, automated
negotiation, contingent contracts, decommitment, financial options
With the explosive growth of internet activity, there will be an
increasing reliance on intelligent software agents for electronic
commerce and information retrieval. Such multi-agents systems will be
comprised of self-motivated agents that interact with each other
though negotiation and task delegation. Multi-agent technology models
and facilitates these interactions through automated contracting. We
develop a domain independent computational model to study in a uniform
manner many complex issues that arise in multi-agent contracting, such
as modeling commitment flexibility in a contract, valuing a contract
under assumptions of uncertainty, risk reduction, making decisions in
situations of asymmetric information, or situations of sequential
subcontracting where each agent must decide to subcontract part of its
current contract to others. Our model is based on financial option
pricing theory. We believe that modeling contracts as options provides
a natural unified framework for taking into account contracting
flexibility and complex forms of environmental uncertainty. In
addition, option pricing provides a computationally tractable
formalism for calculating optimal values of various contracting
decision parameters, that to date have not been rigorously
modeled. Such parameters include the value of a flexible/contingent
contract, when to give out a contract to a contractee, when to break a
contract, and which contract to accept out of a set of offered
contracts. Under our model these aspects of contracting can be
explored analytically and experimentally. Moreover, there are some
aspects of contracting that have no analogues in financial
options. These include contract quality guarantees and multiple
sequential sub-contracting. We extend option pricing theory in
interesting ways to model such contracts.
22 pages
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